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Isaac wants to find the probability that a cone he drops will land on its base. The possible outcomes are “base down” or “on its side”.
Because of the cone’s shape, these outcomes are not equally likely. A simple theoretical calculation isn’t feasible; the outcomes aren’t symmetric, so Isaac estimates the probability by experiment. He tosses the cone 50 times (50 trials) and records the results:
  • Base down: 15 times.
  • On its side: 35 times.
Based on his experiment, Isaac can estimate the probability. The cone landed base down 15 times out of 50:$$ P(\text{base down}) \approx \frac{15}{50} = \frac{3}{10} $$This result from an experiment is called the experimental probability or relative frequency.